JAN 30 NBC Cancel/Renew Index - L&O, K&K improve, KR dips

[jaj1701]

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Now that Sunday Night Football is done, NBC’s average for adults 18-49 is dropping, and that makes many of its shows look like candidates to be renewed and not cancelled. Chuck being renewed is looking more and more certain. And while Law & Order could be renewed on history alone (20th season!), its numbers are looking better relative to the trainwreck that is NBC. Same with Kath & Kim. I’d have given it little hope of being renewed earlier, but NBC’s a beggar, not a chooser. Another few weeks and those last 2 will be in the green.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

*** Pretty much everything not already cancelled upticked except KR, Life and FNL. We need to continue to improve. I am surprised we dipped.

PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status

---------In Danger of Cancellation Below--------
CRUSOE NBC 1,204 3,480 0.35 finishing Sat
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS* NBC 1,931 3,480 0.55 (.59 as of last week)
LIPSTICK JUNGLE NBC 1,969 3,480 0.57 cancelled
KNIGHT RIDER NBC 2,535 3,480 0.73 (.74 as of last week)
LIFE - WED (1) NBC 2,553 3,480 0.73 (.73 as of last week)
MY OWN WORST ENEMY NBC 2,636 3,480 0.76 cancelled
KATH & KIM NBC 3,022 3,480 0.87 (.86 as of last week)
LAW AND ORDER NBC 3,056 3,480 0.88 (.86 as of last week)
---------Considered Safe Below--------------------
CHUCK NBC 3,348 3,480 0.96 (.95 as of last week)
MY NAME IS EARL NBC 3,387 3,480 0.97 (.96 as of last week)
E.R. NBC 4,351 3,480 1.25 final season
30 ROCK NBC 4,398 3,480 1.26 (1.25)
LAW AND ORDER:SVU NBC 4,570 3,480 1.31 (1.30)
HEROES NBC 5,343 3,480 1.54 (1.52)
OFFICE NBC 5,550 3,480 1.59 (1.57)

[jaj1701]

Boy, NBC is certainly sucking wind. AGAIN, NBC has no shows in the Nielsen Ratings Top 20!

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/01/27/am ... wing/11623" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I looked back one more week (Jan 10) for KR's renew/cancellation rating, and it was even higher at .75.

It looks like those early, much higher viewed weeks were keeping the numbers up where they are. I haven't tried to figure out the formula.....but here's the way I see it.

If we dip from last weeks #s helped by Katie Couric's bomb.......we are done!
If we maintain last weeks #s though the end of the season.......the odds are fairly slim
If we can pick up another million (and a good portion of those 18-49) and maintain......I like our odds

The only things that can help us at this point is Viewers and Ford Motor Company.

FMC, is losing Billions of course, but the 2010 Mustang is an important model for Ford. How much is Knight Rider costing FMC per episode. How badly do they want to see the show continue?

Viewers. We must keep spreading the word. We have to get as viral as possible in the saving KR campaign. A super bowl commerical and more advertizing by NBC in general would certainly help.

As I see it, we are not dead.....NBC is sucking and us showing a glimmer of hope of being a solid 18-49 show might be enough. Dipping back to and holding 5mil viewers won't do it though.

[BlueChaos]

How do one calculate the Cancel/Renew Index? Is there a formula to the numbers?

[PunkMaister]

How do one calculate the Cancel/Renew Index? Is there a formula to the numbers?

Good question... To tell you the truth in my opinion Nielsen ratings suck monkeyballs as a way to truly measure a show's overall viewership success, first of all only people that have Nielsen boxes participate, it does not take into account those that DVR the shows and so on. It is a dinosaur whose time has come to disappear in favor of a better way to measure a show's actual pulse in the public.

[Knight007]

ok, now we are in FEB already, what is the news??? did they make up their mind???

[ronni3]

ok, now we are in FEB already, what is the news??? did they make up their mind???

i think they are waiting to see a couple of episodes ratings for the reboot to be sure